Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 1.052395 1.111702 1.173148 1.241688 1.316153 1.394768 1.484252
2026-02-08 0.940249 1.022030 1.110357 1.213310 1.330608 1.460793 1.617198
2026-02-15 0.876955 0.972022 1.077689 1.204741 1.354562 1.527136 1.743199
2026-02-22 0.835029 0.940184 1.059814 1.207387 1.386505 1.599493 1.875977
2026-03-01 0.790309 0.900938 1.029149 1.190610 1.391280 1.636304 1.964310
2026-03-08 0.745822 0.858824 0.991776 1.162090 1.377988 1.647595 2.018199
2026-03-15 0.715513 0.831795 0.970584 1.151306 1.384834 1.682960 2.103744
2026-03-22 0.701264 0.823291 0.971127 1.166966 1.425234 1.762864 2.253382
2026-03-29 0.682300 0.807799 0.961802 1.168874 1.446877 1.818050 2.371556
2026-04-05 0.669427 0.799178 0.960437 1.180526 1.481388 1.891848 2.520768
2026-04-12 0.648631 0.779512 0.943842 1.170842 1.485757 1.923103 2.608599
2026-04-19 0.638176 0.772617 0.943344 1.182390 1.519590 1.997514 2.766588
2026-04-26 0.614881 0.748716 0.920193 1.162871 1.509770 2.009567 2.831308
2026-05-03 0.590501 0.722653 0.893299 1.137083 1.489691 2.005215 2.869451
2026-05-10 0.574503 0.707095 0.879834 1.129279 1.495003 2.038893 2.971780
2026-05-17 0.563286 0.697471 0.873932 1.131689 1.515142 2.096029 3.117733
2026-05-24 0.546476 0.679754 0.856279 1.116403 1.507750 2.109185 3.188213
2026-05-31 0.526865 0.657679 0.831902 1.090396 1.482729 2.092557 3.204062
2026-06-07 0.513796 0.644161 0.818977 1.080557 1.481949 2.114807 3.291619
2026-06-14 0.509454 0.642447 0.822431 1.094845 1.519143 2.201321 3.505697
2026-06-21 0.501271 0.635143 0.817684 1.096585 1.536402 2.255227 3.662671
2026-06-28 0.496290 0.632123 0.818877 1.107210 1.568224 2.335732 3.879761
2026-07-05 0.485557 0.620724 0.807646 1.098380 1.567826 2.359804 3.984788